Why Transformers will beat Terminator, Will Ferrell will beat Quentin Tarantino, and Harry Potter will trounce them all…

It’s time to put your brains in the freezer and prepare your stomachs for a popcorn overdose. We’re looking forward to a season of hilarious comedies, dazzling action flicks and exciting animation… Or are we?

As in previous years, sequels and remakes constitute the majority of this summer’s blockbusters. 2006-7 hits like Transformers and Night at the Museum are getting another shot at the box office, alongside series like Harry Potter, Star Trek and Terminator. Even so-called original fare like Pixar’s Up and Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bruno can be seen as variations on tried-and-true formulas. But let’s admit it: We like this season, we like the sequels/remakes trend, and each of us is waiting anxiously for something…

So who will be the winners of summer 2009? Check out our bets… and let us know yours! (Estimates are for worldwide box office.) And remember, what more cost-effective entertainment do we have these days anyway? For all we know, the recession is a Hollywood conspiracy.

15. June 19: Year One

One of the few movies in this list that’s not a remake or sequel. Then again, it’s produced by Hollywood’s current cash cow Judd Apatow and stars Michael Cera and Jack Black. Sound familiar…? The duo costar as hunter-gatherers in ancient times. The movie follows no logical timeline, jumping from Adam and Eve to the Sacrifice of Isaac. According to the trailer, the focus is not on depicting biblical events, but rather on Cera’s awkwardness as he tries to get the girl and Black’s attempt to prove himself to his tribesmen. A sort of prehistoric Superbad (2007), which looks to me like a lot of laughs.

Box office estimate: $200 million. Cera and Black are golden, and Apatow still has the magic touch. Cera looks like he’s reprising his roles in Juno (2007) and Superbad, and I guess it will be a big draw for teenage and twentysomething fans.

14. July 10: Bruno

As I see it, Sacha Baron Cohen is one of the comic geniuses of our time. In his previous feature Borat (2006), he took the supposedly inferior genre of pranks and raised it to new comic heights while also slipping in some social and cultural messages.

This time, Cohen takes another one of his eccentric characters on a journey across the western world. Bruno is a flamboyantly gay fashion reporter. Based on the trailer, it looks like some staged material is combined with the kind of real-life pranks that Borat featured. Will audiences embrace this movie like they did Borat, or will it turn out to be a one-trick-pony…?

Box office estimate: $200 million. I predict this will be slightly less successful than Borat, but still quite profitable, as many are waiting to see what Sacha Baron Cohen gets up to next.

13. July 31: Funny People

What an appropriate name for wonder boy Judd Apatow’s new movie. Apatow is also producing Year One, but this is his third time directing, after Knocked Up (2007) and The 40-Year-Old Virgin (2005). He also wrote the script and brought back most of his regular cast: Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill and Leslie Mann, as well as stars like Adam Sandler, Eric Bana and Sarah Silverman. The Sandler-Apatow combo already proved itself in You Don’t Mess With the Zohan (2008), and Seth Rogen is on fire, largely thanks to Apatow.

So with the names attached, it’s trivial to mention the plot, no?

Box office estimate: $200 million. This might not seem like a lot compared to others films on this list, but it’s actually great for a comedy that doesn’t include sci-fi or fantasy elements.

12. May 1: X-Men Origins: Wolverine

The fourth installment of the successful X-Men franchise explores the origins of one of its most beloved and complex characters, Wolverine. With this prequel, the producers hope to regain the audience interest lost after the third X-Men sequel, The Last Stand (2006), was a major disappointment among fans and critics. At first Wolverine generated positive buzz among series fans and blockbuster-special-effects lovers alike. But the creators disagreed over the movie’s look and feel: Should it be bleak à la Dark Knight? Or PG-13 for a wider audience? The controversy grew when an illegal and incomplete copy circulated online. The general feeling of disappointment lowered the hype…

Box office estimate: $250 million. It’s hard to predict a film’s quality based on an incomplete copy, so I believe most real X-Men fans will go see the movie despite the negative buzz. But the illegal copy fiasco will keep some viewers away from cinemas, so I predict Wolverine will earn less than any of its 3 predecessors.

11. August 21: Inglourious Basterds

A new Quentin Tarantino flick! Need I say more? Movie buffs all over are already talking about this one, creating buzz half a year and more before its release. Remember, though, that Tarantino’s buzz hasn’t always translated into cold hard cash. Kill Bill 1 and 2 were relatively very successful (over $150 million each), but Grindhouse was a failure and lost money.

Hopefully Inglorious Basterds will be more like Kill Bill. It has an amazing cast, including Brad Pitt, Samuel L. Jackson, Diane Kruger, Mike Myers and Eli Roth. The story is a weird yet fascinating combination of World War 2 and Spaghetti Westerns. The built-in controversy from using WW2 as the backdrop for such a film could also increase public interest.

Box office estimate: $250 million. That is, Tarantino’s most successful film after Pulp Fiction (1994).

10. May 15: Angels and Demons

Angels and Demons is a prequel to the hugely successful Da Vinci Code (2006), which grossed over $700 million worldwide. This is due to the novel’s popularity - most people agree the film is mediocre at best.

Theoretically, the prequel should not earn less than its predecessor. Angels and Demons was also a bestselling novel, and most of the first film’s cast and crew are returning (notably Tom Hanks and Ron Howard).

But I put my faith in the human spirit by saying I think this movie will not do as well. I want to believe that the people who saw The Da Vinci Code thought it was bad enough to skip the prequel. One thing that supports my prediction: This time the church and the Vatican hardly mentioned the film and so didn’t create the level of controversy the previous film enjoyed. And as they say, all press is good press…

Box office estimate: $300 million. And only because of the novel.

9. June 5: Land of the Lost

The trailer for Land of the Lost (a remake of a 1974 TV series) seems like a mix of Jurassic Park (1993), Indiana Jones and Journey to the Center of the Earth (2008). Nothing can go very wrong with dinosaurs, time machines and alternate universes. It looks like a silly but fun adventure comedy with appeal for younger audiences. Will Ferrell’s grown-up fans will also turn out.

Box office estimate: $300 million. This will be a major hit for kids, but won’t attract mature audiences.

8. August 7: G. I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

Here’s a movie that’s not a sequel, but is meant to start a series (that is, if it’s successful enough). Like Transformers, this is based on a toy franchise, which also inspired a famous animated TV series and several computer games.

Director Stephen Sommers is mainly known for his special effects summer flicks like The Mummy (1999), The Mummy Returns (2001) and Van Helsing (2004). Seems like the right resumé for a good special effects action spectacle without too much philosophical mumbo-jumbo.

Box office estimate: $300 million. None of the actors are big stars, but the franchise is quite strong. In the hands of the right director, it could be the beginning of another summer blockbuster series.

7. May 8: Star Trek

Need I say - hype! Star Trek is one of the most successful franchises in movie and TV history, including (so far) 6 TV series and 10 movies. The franchise has a huge fan base who discuss, create, write and argue about it. Smells like success?

Well, trekkies are a large community, but in the last decade the charm has paled. Viewers have moved on to more updated space and sci-fi fare like Firefly (2002-2003) and Battlestar Galactica (2004+). The Star Trek movies of the late 90s and early 2000s became less and less profitable, until the last one in 2002 barely covered its budget.

Now J.J. Abrams comes to the rescue. The brilliant director who brought us Alias (2001-2006) and Lost (2004+) will, by the look of the trailer, bring us the same old characters, but in a sexier, slicker and more violent Star Trek. The fact that Paramount decided to postpone the film’s release from wintry December to blockbuster season has also built up expectations.

Box office estimate: $400 million. And just so you know, before I saw the trailer I didn’t give this more than $100 mil. I think that says it all.

6. May 22: Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

The first Night at the Museum (2006) was by no means acclaimed, original or sophisticated in any way. Still, it was a huge blockbuster, thanks to its star-filled cast and the combination of comedy and clean family fun. Based on the trailer it seems nothing has changed in the sequel. The comedy is still on, educational values are already built in, and the all-star cast is now even bigger, including Ben Stiller, Amy Adams, Robin Williams, Owen Wilson, Jonah Hill, Ricky Gervais, Dick Van Dyke, Bill Hader and many more.

Box office estimate: $450 million. With such a stellar cast, this can only be a huge success or a major flop. And I bet children (in age or at heart) around the world will never tire of Stiller and Williams fooling around.

5. July 3: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

More dinosaurs. Are they the comics heroes of 2009? This dinosaur-inspired film is the 3rd installment of the successful Ice Age series. The second movie, The Meltdown (2006) made almost twice as much money as the first one, which was a big hit in its own right. If we look at the numbers in mathematical sequence, the next movie should earn more than $900 million. Well, I don’t think that will happen, but still…

Box office estimate: $500 million. Manny, Sid and Scrat are well-loved among children and the trailer seems familiar enough to draw them to cinemas in hordes.

4. May 22: Terminator Salvation

Unlike some franchises in this list, which had ups and downs critically and at the box office, the Terminator series has held up. True, the third installment is not considered a masterpiece like its two predecessors (did anyone say James Cameron?), but it was still critically acclaimed. And all three made buckets of money…

Two key, controversial factors will drive this fourth installment. First, the story. It doesn’t repeat itself by focusing on the post-apocalypse. But by doing so, it abandons the shtick that made this franchise so successful - causing fans to worry that it will be just another apocalyptic war movie with decent special effects (and the trailers aren’t reassuring). Second, the actors. Arnold is out (well, sort of), Christian Bale is in. No fan dared to imagine this series without the star who made it and was made by it. Then again, Bale is the hottest guy around and already starred in this decade’s most successful movie, The Dark Knight. Will he break his amazing record (this time with no colleague dying unexpectedly?)…

Box office estimate: $600 million. Easily. If the movie lives up to expectations, maybe even more.

3. May 29: Up

In the last decade, Pixar’s lowest-grossing movie was Cars (2006) at “only” $461 million. The highest grossing was Finding Nemo (2003), at $864 million. So I think it’s safe to say that Up will be a big blockbuster. The colorful trailer indicates a movie that won’t be as original as Wall-E, but still reminds me of the magical, colorful worlds of Monsters, Inc. (2001) and Finding Nemo.

Box office estimate: $650 million. Because it seems destined for children, I predict this will make more money than most Pixar features, except perhaps Finding Nemo.

2. June 26: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Transformers (2007) was one of the most successful movies of summer 2007. Rest assured, Hollywood won’t forget such a potential cash cow. Not only is a sequel expected, but the third installment is already scheduled for 2011.  With the same cast, same director, an even bigger budget and eye-popping special effects, the coming sequel has a good shot at being summer 2009’s highest grossing film. Shia LaBeouf, a relative newcomer in 2007, has since starred in Indiana Jones (2008) and established himself as one of the biggest contemporary stars. And Megan Fox… well, she’s still sexy.

Box office estimate: $650 million. The trailer doesn’t show much more than ships, airplanes and other objects exploding. But they explode in style. Some would say that’s all a summer blockbuster needs.

1. July 17: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

If one movie on this list is a sure bet, it’s this one. None of the other Harry Potter movies made less than $795 million. The book series is so incredibly popular that sometimes it seems like they could’ve just shot J.K. Rowling sitting and reading the book aloud, and made a fortune.

But not to worry, there’ll be nothing like reading aloud in this movie. The trailer features plenty of amazing special effects, along with a darker plot that suits the maturing Harry Potter audience. Director David Yates returns from the previous film, which was the darkest so far, along with the beloved cast and some new characters.

Box office estimate: $900 million. It’s Harry Potter, after all.

Think I left anything out? Suspect I forgot about the recession and the numbers here are completely inflated? Let us know in the comments!

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