Have you heard of the Sundance Toxic Buzz Syndrome? Maybe not, since I made it up – but in my experience, it’s a real phenomenon.

There’s no arguing that Sundance has contributed a lot to independent cinema. Still, the festival tends to overhype its line-up and winners. Winners at every festival sometimes fail to deliver on their promise. Yet Sundance seems to have perfected the art of the misleading buzz. This serves producers who cut dreamy distribution deals for low-cost titles. But viewers, and mostly buyers, should beware.

The after-Sundance-reality is that only a few buzzed titles, and even festival winners, nab a domestic distribution. Some live up to their buzz until the subsequent Berlin Film Festival, where they might sell internationally. After a long festival run, it can take a year or more for their domestic and international releases. Only a handful will ever top a few million at the box office.

By way of example, here is the harvest of just 8 titles from 2004, when I was a buyer.

Click to enlarge:

The big winner of 2004, Primer was a great deal for the producer. However, the box office (B/O) figure is very small; buyers and viewers expected more.
Another aspect of the Syndrome: the movie was a one-time success. Its director, Shane Carruth, hasn’t made any films since.

The documentary Tarnation cost a ridiculous $213K to edit (although its images and videos are the result of 20 years work). Its director completed another documentary in 2009, which didn’t gain a commercial distribution.

Napoleon Dynamite’s hyper-buzz was followed by a fierce bidding war between Fox Searchlight and WB Independent. Fox won, paying almost 8 times the movie’s budget for domestic rights. The movie succeeded mainly in the U.S. Considered crazy by many industry professionals, Fox’ deal eventually proved worthwhile.

In a rare cooperation, Garden State was sold to Fox Searchlight and Miramax for double its budget. Unlike Napoleon, the wisdom of this deal is arguable. Garden State was better received in the US than internationally, probably enjoying the star-power of its director, Scrubs’ lead Zach Braff – who hasn’t yet directed another feature.

First presented at the Hamptons International Film Festival, Open Water was bought for 20 times its budget only after screening at Sundance. Interesting, distribution rights were bought by a non-studio, Lionsgate. (A buyer at the time, I acquired rights for my territory.) Its international performance wasn’t bad for a horror flick, but probably didn’t justify the prices paid for rights. And the director was a one-time success.

If there were movie sales-and-marketing schools, The Woodsman (starring real-life couple Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick) would be a great study case. Following a bidding war among six companies, the producers closed a deal with Newmarket, a hot distribution outfit back then after the successful release of Monster, another indie with a tough subject (as well as Memento, Donnie Darko, Whale Rider, and others). While domestic rights were acquired for less than the movie’s budget, it still seemed astonishing to pay such a sum for a movie about a pedophile. At the Berlin Film Festival, the buzz continued with packed screenings and an international bidding war. As a buyer, I found myself competing rights with almost all my competitors. How did it all end?  The movie failed everywhere. Moreover, director Nicole Kassell only now, nearly 7 years later, starts shooting her next feature, Earthbound.

With Maria Full of Grace, domestic distribution wasn’t negotiable. The buzz affected international sales – and considering the box office results, didn’t justify the mayhem. The director, Joshua Marston, has since directed a few TV episodes and a chapter in N.Y. I Love You.

Showing that foreign titles can suffer the same syndrome, The Motorcycle Diaries was directed by the acclaimed Brazilian director Walter Salles (Central do Brasil) and starred Gael Garcia Bernal hot off Y Tu Mama Tambien and Amores Perros (and soon to be seen in the upcoming Earthbound). Still, the price paid for distributing a subtitled movie in the U.S. looks inflated – and perhaps not justified, given the results.

Why is Sundance home to Toxic Buzz? Festivals like Cannes and Berlin showcase more titles, so perhaps the flops are less prominent. As well, moviegoers and critics are mostly uninvolved in the big markets that are held alongside those festivals. And unlike Cannes or Venice, which usually feature titles from established directors and actors, at Sundance the buzzed titles are the works of little-known directors. So if a film fails, it flops completely; no star power to minimize the damage. Then there are the interests involved: For indie filmmakers, domestic and international sales represent profit regardless of box office performance. And for festivals and studios, discovering the next hot indie – successful or not – brings prestige.

Having said all that, the search for the next promising work will never cease to excite and thrill. Adding to the anticipation, the festival has an intriguing new initiative this year, Sundance Film Festival USA: On January 28, the festival is sending eight filmmakers to eight cities across the U.S. to screen and discuss direct-from-festival films with audiences.

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