Just a few days away from the ceremony, the nominees are finally published so we can make our bets. Here’s who we think should win vs. who will probably win, since the judges aren’t as wise as we are. In light of the many differences, we can only ask the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA): Please surprise us!

Best Motion Picture, Drama

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Avatar
The one movie that really “got to me” this year was Inglourious Basterds. It’s captivating, intellectual, funny and horrifying all at once. However, the HFPA tends to go with current hype, which in this case is Avatar. Its incredible commercial success, along with constant discussion among critics and viewers alike, makes it likely to be the big winner at the 2010 Golden Globes.

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Should Win: (500) Days of Summer
Will Win: Nine
A couple months ago I would have chosen Nine as the definite winner in this category. It’s a stylish musical full of big names and lavish costumes - a kind of movie the HFPA really loves. But then the movie was released to very mediocre reviews and a disappointing box office, and the race reopened.

I still believe Nine will win as it has no real competition: (500) Days of Summer is cute but too indie, The Hangover is very funny but ultimately just a silly comedy, and Julie and Julia did not get much praise aside from Meryl Streep’s acting.

Best Director - Motion Picture

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
The real fight here is between ex-husband-and-wife James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. On one side the huge-budget, high-grossing, eye-popping IMAX visuals of Avatar. On the other side the indie Hurt Locker, which was released over a year ago at the 2008 Venice Film Festival and has gained critical recognition ever since. I believe in this case the smaller film will win, though personally I would choose Quentin Tarantino over any of them.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Should Win: Jeff Bridges
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
This would be the 4th Golden Globe nomination for Jeff Bridges, who everyone agrees is a fine actor. At age 61, it’s time for him to get some recognition from the HFPA, and maybe from the Oscar judges too. The movie, Crazy Heart, is about an aging, self-destructive country singer. The movie got generally good reviews, all highlighting Bridges’ performance: “may be the best of his career“, “the show belongs to Bridges“, “some actors are blessed. Bridges is one of them“. So I would be very surprised if Bridges loses to an old voters’ favorite like Morgan Freeman.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Once again there’s a consensus. I feel like Carey Mulligan fell out of the sky (had you heard of her a year ago?). She now appears everywhere: In Jim Sheridan’s Brothers; alongside Keira Knightley and Charlotte Rampling in Never Let Me Go; and in Oliver Stone’s upcoming sequel to Wall Street.

Her performance in An Education gained her attention many actresses do not achieve in years. Critics have wondered whether she is the new Audrey Hepburn or the new Kate Winslet. Now she has the chance to prove she’s not just another star that will fade as fast as it appeared.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
It’s true: Sherlock Holmes wasn’t the really great movie it could have been. But it was still fun and entertaining, and the character of Sherlock himself, portrayed by Robert Downey Jr., was hilarious, proving once again that Downey Jr. is one of the most talented actors in Hollywood. Will it help him get the Golden Globe (especially after no awarding recognition for his previous hilarious comic effort in Tropic Thunder)? I believe not. The HFPA would probably announce the more popular vote of Daniel Day-Lewis as the winner.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy

Should win: Sandra Bullock
Will Win: Meryl Streep
Okay, okay, I know I’m in the minority here. And I don’t really think Sandra Bullock is a better actress than Meryl Streep. But come on - Bullock has pulled off an amazing comeback. She starred in two of the most successful films of the year: the surprisingly successful rom-com The Proposal and the tearjerkerker The Blind Side. Besides, Meryl Streep already has enough Golden Globes (six, to be exact) and I’m sure she would gladly give this one up in favor of finally grabbing the Oscar after twenty-eight years…

Best Animated Feature Film

Should Win: Coraline
Will Win: Up
Pixar, Pixar, Pixar, bla bla bla. It’s pointless to even talk about this award. In the few years this award has existed (from 2006) Pixar has always won - even with mediocre films like Cars. So there’s no reason to think Up will be any different - it’s highly acclaimed and loved worldwide.

For a while there was talk of The Princess and the Frog winning, in some sort of tribute to good-old 2D animation, but so far the reviews aren’t glowing enough and the box office is slightly disappointing.

Of course the real winner in my opinion should have been Coraline - amazing animation combined with a compelling story that is more suitable for adults than for small children.

Best Foreign Language Film

Should Win: The White Ribbon
Will Win: The White Ribbon
This film won the big prize at the last Cannes Film Festival, and it will probably win both the Golden Globe and the Oscar. Its controversial director, Michael Haneke, returns with a stylish black-and-white film depicting the strange events in a small German village before WWI. Haneke’s famous penchant for violence is somewhat restrained here, but the atmosphere is intense, chilling and eerie just the same.

Best Television Series - Drama

Should Win: House M.D.
Will Win: True Blood
The last three picks for best drama series makes me want to confiscate the Golden Globes - Mad Men two years in a row, and Grey’s Anatomy the year before that! It’s nothing less than shameful that House M.D. - a true masterpiece - has never won an Emmy or a Golden Globe for best drama series. Now, already in its sixth season, it’s time for the voters to redeem themselves from their past sins (and follow Jinni’s People’s Choice Awards results) and give the award for best drama series to House.
P.S. If not House, then Dexter.
P.S.S. If not Dexter, then True Blood.
P.S.S.S. But it really should be House.

Best Television Series, Comedy Or Musical

Should Win: The Office
Will Win: 30 Rock
The last two picks for best comedy series gave me hope for this year. In 2009, 30 Rock won, and in 2008 the excellent Extras. If the positive direction continues, it should be The Office this year. The British original won in 2003, and it’s time to honor the equally great American version. What scares me is that Ugly Betty won in 2007, and Desperate Housewives won in both 2005 and 2006, so the HFPA don’t always make the best decisions on this score. Modern Family is a good series, but describing it as one of the best of the decade (as many did) is over-praise. Glee is great for teen girls, but it’s not on the caliber of 30 Rock and The Office.

Do you think our predictions are completely off? Do you think (or wish…?) for Avatar to be the biggest loser in this ceremony? Comment and let us know!

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