Predicting the Oscars with the Movie Genome
March 2nd, 2010 by Phoebe
The Oscars are just around the corner, and as excitement (or disgust, depending on your perspective) mounts, we want to share a few interesting insights from Jinni users and our Movie Genome.
Which movie should win Best Picture according to Jinni users?
Based on ratings by Jinni users, here are the 10 best pictures of 2009
There’s a 50% overlap with the Academy’s nominees…
1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Up
3. Avatar
4. Star Trek
5. Moon
6. Zombieland
7. District 9
8. The Hangover
9. 500 Days of Summer
10. Up in the Air
Notable genes of the Best Picture nominees
Before we get to predictions, it’s interesting to note that, due to the diversity created by having 10 nominees instead of 5 for the first time, some of the most common genes among this year’s nominees are not nearly as prominent, if at all, among winners from the past. (Our control group is winners from 1950 to 2009.) Can we call them contemporary obsessions…?
1. Profanity (appears in 6 of the 10 nominees’ genes)
2. Parents and Children (a plot element shared by 5 of the 10 nominees)
3. Stylized (5/10)
4. Misfit (5/10)
5. Action (4/10; this genre characterizes only 5 of the last 59 winners)
6. Voice Over (4/10)
7. Racism (4/10)
8. Life Is a Bitch (4/10)
(If you’re wondering whether a certain Oscar nominee has a given gene, take a look at the Movie Genome on the right side of the movie overview page.)
Which movie will win according to the Movie Genome?
Looking at the genes of all Best Picture winners from 1950 to the present, as well as the genes of this year’s 10 nominees, we’ve come up with some Best Picture predictions…
Can a movie win if it’s not realistic?
Unlikely. 58 of the last 59 Best Picture winners get the gene “realistic” as opposed to “fantastic.” Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) is the one exception. Does this spell disappointment for Avatar, District 9, and Up?
Can a movie win if it’s not a drama?
Rarely. 49 of the last 59 Best Picture winners were dramas. Surprisingly, 5 nominees this year are not dramas: Avatar, District 9, A Serious Man, Up, and Inglourious Basterds.
Can sci-fi win?
It hasn’t happened since 1950. Can Avatar or District 9 change that? Note that animation (Up) has never won either…
Can non-blockbusters win?
It looks like the Academy tends to go with public opinion here. Only 15 (or 25%) of the Best Picture winners since 1950 weren’t blockbusters, indicating some disadvantage for this year’s Precious, The Hurt Locker, An Education and A Serious Man.
Can controversy win?
Probably not. The Academy seems to steer clear of this. Only 2 movies tagged “controversial” have ever won Best Picture since 1950. Bad sign for Inglourious Basterds?
By these measures, we’d have to put our money on The Blind Side or Up in the Air. That would be unexpected due to the buzz around Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Then again, choosing sci-fi or a non-blockbuster would be unconventional too. Looks like either way, the Academy is set to surprise us…
Technorati Tags: Oscars, Academy Awards, predictions, Best Picture
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March 2nd, 2010 at 8:55 am
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March 2nd, 2010 at 11:01 am
Great post and poll. I’m hoping Avatar wins. Didn’t see as many movies this year as usual, though, so hard to compare.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 2:27 pm
I feel Avatar should get it. An absolutely novel idea..very well presented.. Should be a trend setter for the coming decade.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 4:51 pm
No way should Avatar win Best Picture. It is a beautiful, lush film with fantastic effects, but the story was ridiculously flat in comparison.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Avatar had awesome special effects and decent acting, but the story was not anything special.
I loved Up, personally - I thought it had great heart and originality.
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March 3rd, 2010 at 2:51 am
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS WAS TARANTINO’S BEST FILM YET.
WOULD LOVE TO SEE HIM AND THE FILM WIN!
MONIQUE AND CHRISTOPER WEITZI ARE SHOE INS
AND I THINK SANDRA BULLOCK AND JEFF BRIDGES ( ALTHOUGH I THOUGHT COLIN FIRTH WAS AMAZING!)
I LOVE JASON REITMAN - BUT UP IN THE AIR WAS NOT HIS BEST FILM
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March 7th, 2010 at 6:04 am
Well, I would love it if District 9 won, as I am South African, but I strongly doubt it will. I just wish i could.
I love Avatar, my favourite movie of ‘09, but not a best picture. UP was very touching and special, but for D9, Up, the nomination is really just an honorary mention.
I haven’t seen An Education, Hurt Locker, Up in Air, or Blind Side, but its on my list.
Basterds was amazing, but I don’t think it was QT’s greatest. Christopher Waltz deserves it tho.
Imma go with the hype, and say Hurt Locker
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March 8th, 2010 at 11:47 am
So much for the predictions. Not even close.
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May 9th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
Basterds was amazing, but I don’t think it was QT’s greatest. Christopher Waltz deserves it tho.
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May 11th, 2010 at 2:52 am
It looks like the Academy tends to go with public opinion here.
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