What else you should watch in the coming weeks…

About two weeks ago, it was officially established that 2009 has been Hollywood’s highest grossing year to date (despite, or thanks to, the recession). And that was before Avatar’s expected enormous contribution. With 86% at Rotten Tomatoes and surprising Golden Globes nominations for best film and best director (all of that before the movie was even released!), its prospects look good.

With all the buzz around Avatar, which some say is once again going to change filmmaking as we know it (just like James Cameron’s groundbreaking Terminator 2), there are still other movies out there, releasing this month, waiting for their share of attention…

Hence, our challenge with this post is not to say one more word about Avatar, and convince you to choose one of the following three films as your next cinematic experience, based on their fail-proof ingredients (or are they?).

I. Masterminded by Clint Eastwood - Invictus (already in theaters)

Clint Eastwood’s  new movie is an unusual mix of politics, racism and sports drama. Not Gandhi, not The Blind Side - and about rugby, which is not really football. It’s achieved moderate box office success until now (Clint, maybe some 3D game scenes could have helped – next time, consult Cameron…). Still the movie gets good reviews from audiences and critics, and is nominated for 3 Golden Globes, including for Eastwood, Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon – just another ordinary day at the office for Eastwood…

If that’s not enough for you to go and see Invictus, then here are Eastwood’s top five movies as director, to remind you how powerful and rewarding his works are (and any of his collaborations with Morgan Freeman). Looking at this top five, it seems that Clint only gets better and better with the years. Maybe he’ll make his best movie, the masterpiece that will establish him as the greatest director ever, at the tender age of 119…

5. The Outlaw Josey Wales

Critics did not take this movie seriously in 1976. Today, many consider it one of the greatest Westerns. Here the West is an ugly and brutal place, as in Sergio Leone’s films, but with a different Eastwood hero. He has a name, a sense of humor, and a heart. Next to Unforgiven, this is the most sweeping and emotionally complex of Eastwood’s Westerns.

4. Unforgiven

In this Oscar-winning, atmospheric Western masterpiece, a sadistic sheriff (Gene Hackman) enforces his own brand of due process. Hired to confront him is a reformed gunslinger, who must contend with his new moral code in the face of revisiting the life he left behind.

3. Mystic River

In another Oscar-winning work, a murder mystery unites three childhood friends who have drifted apart due to a disturbing episode in their past. Powerful performances from character actors, gritty photography, an exceptionally emotional script, and a convincing working-class Boston setting make this one of Eastwood’s most penetrating works.

2. Million Dollar Baby

Once again taking home the Oscars, this is Eastwood’s first unusual mix of plots – sports with a medical drama. With all due respect to Hillary Swank’s powerful performance, it’s the two old-timers, Eastwood and Morgan Freeman, who make this film, with masterfully understated performances as a couple of men teetering on the brink of failure.

1. Gran Torino

Some describe this film as Dirty Harry: The Pension Years. I think it’s terrific and it’s a shame it didn’t win deserved Oscars. In what he declared to be his last acting role, Eastwood plays a retired, racist war vet, who becomes a reluctant hero when he stands up to protect an Asian teen – and an unlikely friendship ensues.

II. All-Star Cast - Nine (releasing this weekend)

Nine is a new musical from Chicago’s director Rob Marshall. A homage, or remake if you will, of Fellini’s classic 8 1/2. Despite not-too-flattering reviews so far, it has Oscar buzz, and 5 Golden Globes nominations, including best film. So with no decisive conclusion per its quality, let’s examine if an all-star cast will do the work of bringing in the masses. Nine includes (take a deep breath): Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz (all 3 nominated for Golden Globe), Nicole Kidman, Judi Dench, Kate Hudson, Sophia Loren and Fergie.

5. The Batman Franchise

Batman Forever (1995)

-Or-

Batman & Robin (1997)

The all-star cast worked great for the third installment but couldn’t prevent the catastrophe of the fourth, which practically killed the Batman franchise until Chris Nolan’s reboot in 2005.

4. Historical Epics

Troy (2004)

-Or-

Alexander (2004)

Troy was a hit with Pitt, Bana & co. On the other hand, even Angelina Jolie’s star power couldn’t help Alexander. Let’s face it - when a movie is THAT long and boring, no star’s gonna help…

3. Stylish Neo-Noir

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow (2004)

-Or-

Sin City (2005)

Is Angelina Jolie a jinx? Sky Captain’s failure was even worse than Alexander’s (a shame, as unlike former failures, this movie is quite interesting). A year later, it seemed that even extras had star power in the acclaimed and successful Sin City. A sequel is scheduled to start shooting next year.

2. Ben Stiller Comedies

The Royal Tenenbaums (2001)

-Or-

Tropic Thunder (2008)

The Royal Tenenbaums would’ve probably gained much less success without it’s big names, being the small, offbeat comedy that it is. Tropic Thunder also benefited, as Stiller, who also directed and cast his comedian friends alongside more “serious” actors in surprising humorous performances.

1. Rob Marshall Musicals

Chicago (2002)

-Or-

Nine (2009)

In a few days we’ll have the opportunity to see if all-star cast works twice for the same director, in the same genre. Chicago rocked the box offices, amazed the critics and won six Oscars. Will Marshall reprise these achievements?

III. Riddles and Clues – Sherlock Holmes (releasing next week)

The most famous fictitious detective gets an intriguing new cinematic adaptation from no other than Guy Ritchie. From the trailer, it does seem to have Snatch’s energy, action, humor and fast pace. With Robert Downey Jr. as Holmes (nominated for Golden Globe), Jude Law as Watson, and Rachel McAdams as Holmes’ love interest, does this one need our help encouraging moviegoers to go and see it? In normal times no, but facing Avatar (oops, we promised not to mention it), maybe it needs a little extra push. So let’s remember why we love this type of story so much, by taking a look at some of the best puzzle solvers in cinema and television.

5. Murder She Wrote (1984) - The Old(er) Woman

Despite the formulaic structure, the pleasure of watching one of the most successful mystery TV shows of all time came from Angela Lansbury’s charming portrayal of an amateur sleuth - a widowed mystery writer who stumbles across a murder in each episode, and cleverly deduces who the criminal is before anyone else can. Lansbury was nominated for an astonishing twelve Emmys for her role.

4. A Touch of Frost (1992) - The Mustache

This long-running Brit series stars David Jason as scruffy police detective Jack Frost. Tracking down wrongdoers in the fictitious town of Denton, England, Frost solves cases with a healthy dose of humor and an unconventional style that puts him at odds with both criminals and his own police force.

3. Cracker (1993) - The Flawed Brit

Robbie Coltrane stars in another British TV masterpiece, a brilliant character study about a forensic psychologist with a knack for getting inside the criminal mind. Perhaps his addictions to sex, gambling, and booze put him the in the right mindset, but they also ruin his relationships with co-workers and family.

2. Columbo (1971) - The Just One More Thing…

With his trademark raincoat and cigar, Columbo (Peter Falk) is one of TV’s most popular private investigators. He appears to be a quiet man who only grasps rudimentary facts. Actually he’s brilliant, always able to ask the one question no one else thought of -leading to a string of successful cases, while keeping viewers second-guessing until the final moments of the show.

1. House M.D. (2004) - The Doctor Detective

Part E.R. part C.S.I., House is a medical mystery TV show that appeals with interesting characters, lively interactions, and fast-paced, twisting plotlines. Dr. House is a brilliant medical professional whose abrasive manner and bitterness often alienate his patients and co-workers. Each episode he’s faced with unusual symptoms, and must identify the patient’s illness - before it’s too late!

So are these any good? Are they better than Avatar? Comment and let us know what you think! And watch out for the Top 10 End-of-the-Decade Poll, coming soon to a blog near you…

Technorati Tags: Avatar, Invictus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes

Popularity: 5% [?]

Why Transformers will beat Terminator, Will Ferrell will beat Quentin Tarantino, and Harry Potter will trounce them all…

It’s time to put your brains in the freezer and prepare your stomachs for a popcorn overdose. We’re looking forward to a season of hilarious comedies, dazzling action flicks and exciting animation… Or are we?

As in previous years, sequels and remakes constitute the majority of this summer’s blockbusters. 2006-7 hits like Transformers and Night at the Museum are getting another shot at the box office, alongside series like Harry Potter, Star Trek and Terminator. Even so-called original fare like Pixar’s Up and Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bruno can be seen as variations on tried-and-true formulas. But let’s admit it: We like this season, we like the sequels/remakes trend, and each of us is waiting anxiously for something…

So who will be the winners of summer 2009? Check out our bets… and let us know yours! (Estimates are for worldwide box office.) And remember, what more cost-effective entertainment do we have these days anyway? For all we know, the recession is a Hollywood conspiracy.

15. June 19: Year One

One of the few movies in this list that’s not a remake or sequel. Then again, it’s produced by Hollywood’s current cash cow Judd Apatow and stars Michael Cera and Jack Black. Sound familiar…? The duo costar as hunter-gatherers in ancient times. The movie follows no logical timeline, jumping from Adam and Eve to the Sacrifice of Isaac. According to the trailer, the focus is not on depicting biblical events, but rather on Cera’s awkwardness as he tries to get the girl and Black’s attempt to prove himself to his tribesmen. A sort of prehistoric Superbad (2007), which looks to me like a lot of laughs.

Box office estimate: $200 million. Cera and Black are golden, and Apatow still has the magic touch. Cera looks like he’s reprising his roles in Juno (2007) and Superbad, and I guess it will be a big draw for teenage and twentysomething fans.

14. July 10: Bruno

As I see it, Sacha Baron Cohen is one of the comic geniuses of our time. In his previous feature Borat (2006), he took the supposedly inferior genre of pranks and raised it to new comic heights while also slipping in some social and cultural messages.

This time, Cohen takes another one of his eccentric characters on a journey across the western world. Bruno is a flamboyantly gay fashion reporter. Based on the trailer, it looks like some staged material is combined with the kind of real-life pranks that Borat featured. Will audiences embrace this movie like they did Borat, or will it turn out to be a one-trick-pony…?

Box office estimate: $200 million. I predict this will be slightly less successful than Borat, but still quite profitable, as many are waiting to see what Sacha Baron Cohen gets up to next.

13. July 31: Funny People

What an appropriate name for wonder boy Judd Apatow’s new movie. Apatow is also producing Year One, but this is his third time directing, after Knocked Up (2007) and The 40-Year-Old Virgin (2005). He also wrote the script and brought back most of his regular cast: Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill and Leslie Mann, as well as stars like Adam Sandler, Eric Bana and Sarah Silverman. The Sandler-Apatow combo already proved itself in You Don’t Mess With the Zohan (2008), and Seth Rogen is on fire, largely thanks to Apatow.

So with the names attached, it’s trivial to mention the plot, no?

Box office estimate: $200 million. This might not seem like a lot compared to others films on this list, but it’s actually great for a comedy that doesn’t include sci-fi or fantasy elements.

12. May 1: X-Men Origins: Wolverine

The fourth installment of the successful X-Men franchise explores the origins of one of its most beloved and complex characters, Wolverine. With this prequel, the producers hope to regain the audience interest lost after the third X-Men sequel, The Last Stand (2006), was a major disappointment among fans and critics. At first Wolverine generated positive buzz among series fans and blockbuster-special-effects lovers alike. But the creators disagreed over the movie’s look and feel: Should it be bleak à la Dark Knight? Or PG-13 for a wider audience? The controversy grew when an illegal and incomplete copy circulated online. The general feeling of disappointment lowered the hype…

Box office estimate: $250 million. It’s hard to predict a film’s quality based on an incomplete copy, so I believe most real X-Men fans will go see the movie despite the negative buzz. But the illegal copy fiasco will keep some viewers away from cinemas, so I predict Wolverine will earn less than any of its 3 predecessors.

11. August 21: Inglourious Basterds

A new Quentin Tarantino flick! Need I say more? Movie buffs all over are already talking about this one, creating buzz half a year and more before its release. Remember, though, that Tarantino’s buzz hasn’t always translated into cold hard cash. Kill Bill 1 and 2 were relatively very successful (over $150 million each), but Grindhouse was a failure and lost money.

Hopefully Inglorious Basterds will be more like Kill Bill. It has an amazing cast, including Brad Pitt, Samuel L. Jackson, Diane Kruger, Mike Myers and Eli Roth. The story is a weird yet fascinating combination of World War 2 and Spaghetti Westerns. The built-in controversy from using WW2 as the backdrop for such a film could also increase public interest.

Box office estimate: $250 million. That is, Tarantino’s most successful film after Pulp Fiction (1994).

10. May 15: Angels and Demons

Angels and Demons is a prequel to the hugely successful Da Vinci Code (2006), which grossed over $700 million worldwide. This is due to the novel’s popularity - most people agree the film is mediocre at best.

Theoretically, the prequel should not earn less than its predecessor. Angels and Demons was also a bestselling novel, and most of the first film’s cast and crew are returning (notably Tom Hanks and Ron Howard).

But I put my faith in the human spirit by saying I think this movie will not do as well. I want to believe that the people who saw The Da Vinci Code thought it was bad enough to skip the prequel. One thing that supports my prediction: This time the church and the Vatican hardly mentioned the film and so didn’t create the level of controversy the previous film enjoyed. And as they say, all press is good press…

Box office estimate: $300 million. And only because of the novel.

9. June 5: Land of the Lost

The trailer for Land of the Lost (a remake of a 1974 TV series) seems like a mix of Jurassic Park (1993), Indiana Jones and Journey to the Center of the Earth (2008). Nothing can go very wrong with dinosaurs, time machines and alternate universes. It looks like a silly but fun adventure comedy with appeal for younger audiences. Will Ferrell’s grown-up fans will also turn out.

Box office estimate: $300 million. This will be a major hit for kids, but won’t attract mature audiences.

8. August 7: G. I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

Here’s a movie that’s not a sequel, but is meant to start a series (that is, if it’s successful enough). Like Transformers, this is based on a toy franchise, which also inspired a famous animated TV series and several computer games.

Director Stephen Sommers is mainly known for his special effects summer flicks like The Mummy (1999), The Mummy Returns (2001) and Van Helsing (2004). Seems like the right resumé for a good special effects action spectacle without too much philosophical mumbo-jumbo.

Box office estimate: $300 million. None of the actors are big stars, but the franchise is quite strong. In the hands of the right director, it could be the beginning of another summer blockbuster series.

7. May 8: Star Trek

Need I say - hype! Star Trek is one of the most successful franchises in movie and TV history, including (so far) 6 TV series and 10 movies. The franchise has a huge fan base who discuss, create, write and argue about it. Smells like success?

Well, trekkies are a large community, but in the last decade the charm has paled. Viewers have moved on to more updated space and sci-fi fare like Firefly (2002-2003) and Battlestar Galactica (2004+). The Star Trek movies of the late 90s and early 2000s became less and less profitable, until the last one in 2002 barely covered its budget.

Now J.J. Abrams comes to the rescue. The brilliant director who brought us Alias (2001-2006) and Lost (2004+) will, by the look of the trailer, bring us the same old characters, but in a sexier, slicker and more violent Star Trek. The fact that Paramount decided to postpone the film’s release from wintry December to blockbuster season has also built up expectations.

Box office estimate: $400 million. And just so you know, before I saw the trailer I didn’t give this more than $100 mil. I think that says it all.

6. May 22: Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

The first Night at the Museum (2006) was by no means acclaimed, original or sophisticated in any way. Still, it was a huge blockbuster, thanks to its star-filled cast and the combination of comedy and clean family fun. Based on the trailer it seems nothing has changed in the sequel. The comedy is still on, educational values are already built in, and the all-star cast is now even bigger, including Ben Stiller, Amy Adams, Robin Williams, Owen Wilson, Jonah Hill, Ricky Gervais, Dick Van Dyke, Bill Hader and many more.

Box office estimate: $450 million. With such a stellar cast, this can only be a huge success or a major flop. And I bet children (in age or at heart) around the world will never tire of Stiller and Williams fooling around.

5. July 3: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

More dinosaurs. Are they the comics heroes of 2009? This dinosaur-inspired film is the 3rd installment of the successful Ice Age series. The second movie, The Meltdown (2006) made almost twice as much money as the first one, which was a big hit in its own right. If we look at the numbers in mathematical sequence, the next movie should earn more than $900 million. Well, I don’t think that will happen, but still…

Box office estimate: $500 million. Manny, Sid and Scrat are well-loved among children and the trailer seems familiar enough to draw them to cinemas in hordes.

4. May 22: Terminator Salvation

Unlike some franchises in this list, which had ups and downs critically and at the box office, the Terminator series has held up. True, the third installment is not considered a masterpiece like its two predecessors (did anyone say James Cameron?), but it was still critically acclaimed. And all three made buckets of money…

Two key, controversial factors will drive this fourth installment. First, the story. It doesn’t repeat itself by focusing on the post-apocalypse. But by doing so, it abandons the shtick that made this franchise so successful - causing fans to worry that it will be just another apocalyptic war movie with decent special effects (and the trailers aren’t reassuring). Second, the actors. Arnold is out (well, sort of), Christian Bale is in. No fan dared to imagine this series without the star who made it and was made by it. Then again, Bale is the hottest guy around and already starred in this decade’s most successful movie, The Dark Knight. Will he break his amazing record (this time with no colleague dying unexpectedly?)…

Box office estimate: $600 million. Easily. If the movie lives up to expectations, maybe even more.

3. May 29: Up

In the last decade, Pixar’s lowest-grossing movie was Cars (2006) at “only” $461 million. The highest grossing was Finding Nemo (2003), at $864 million. So I think it’s safe to say that Up will be a big blockbuster. The colorful trailer indicates a movie that won’t be as original as Wall-E, but still reminds me of the magical, colorful worlds of Monsters, Inc. (2001) and Finding Nemo.

Box office estimate: $650 million. Because it seems destined for children, I predict this will make more money than most Pixar features, except perhaps Finding Nemo.

2. June 26: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Transformers (2007) was one of the most successful movies of summer 2007. Rest assured, Hollywood won’t forget such a potential cash cow. Not only is a sequel expected, but the third installment is already scheduled for 2011.  With the same cast, same director, an even bigger budget and eye-popping special effects, the coming sequel has a good shot at being summer 2009’s highest grossing film. Shia LaBeouf, a relative newcomer in 2007, has since starred in Indiana Jones (2008) and established himself as one of the biggest contemporary stars. And Megan Fox… well, she’s still sexy.

Box office estimate: $650 million. The trailer doesn’t show much more than ships, airplanes and other objects exploding. But they explode in style. Some would say that’s all a summer blockbuster needs.

1. July 17: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

If one movie on this list is a sure bet, it’s this one. None of the other Harry Potter movies made less than $795 million. The book series is so incredibly popular that sometimes it seems like they could’ve just shot J.K. Rowling sitting and reading the book aloud, and made a fortune.

But not to worry, there’ll be nothing like reading aloud in this movie. The trailer features plenty of amazing special effects, along with a darker plot that suits the maturing Harry Potter audience. Director David Yates returns from the previous film, which was the darkest so far, along with the beloved cast and some new characters.

Box office estimate: $900 million. It’s Harry Potter, after all.

Think I left anything out? Suspect I forgot about the recession and the numbers here are completely inflated? Let us know in the comments!

Technorati Tags: blockbuster, movie, film, Terminator, Transformers, Wolverine, Star Trek, Inglourious Basterds, Harry Potter, Bruno, Ice Age, G.I. Joe, Funny People, Year One, Pixar, Land of the Lost, Night at the Museum, Angels and Demons

Popularity: 16% [?]

It seems likely that in an economic downturn, we’ll buy fewer theater tickets. Instead, we’ll rent more DVDs and continue to watch more online, free as well as pay-to-stream or pay-to-download. We expect that smarter tools for choosing what to watch will be especially important in huge DVD and online catalogues.

But what will we watch? These kinds of things are hard to predict, but here are a few highlights of what Americans enjoyed during hard economic times in the past.

1929: Stock markets crashed worldwide and the U.S. entered the Great Depression.
Top-grossing movie (courtesy of The Numbers): The Broadway Melody

The Broadway Melody had many firsts: MGM’s first musical film, one of the first musicals with a color sequence, and the first sound film to win Best Picture at the Oscars. A backstage show biz love triangle starring two sisters, it’s a light melodrama with plenty of Broadway clichés.

1973: Quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC alongside government spending on the Vietnam War led to stagflation.
Top-grossing movie: The Exorcist

What are those noises in the attic? A young girl is possessed and her desperate mother enlists the help of two priests to exorcise the demon… Very graphic for its time, it was dismissed by Rolling Stone as “nothing more than a religious porn film” – but terrified audiences made it one of the top-grossing horror films of all time.

1987: Black Monday (October 19 1987) was the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history.
Top-grossing movie: 3 Men and a Baby

Three bachelors find themselves forced to take care of a baby left by one of their girlfriends. With the tagline “They changed her diapers. She changed their lives,” this goofy, feel-good movie was a big hit.

1990: The early 90s recession began as industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales fell off.
Top-grossing movie: Home Alone

An eight year-old is accidentally left behind when his family leaves for Christmas vacation, and has to defend his home against bumbling burglars. A feel-good family classic. Those who remember the early 90s recession also remember Macaulay Culkin back when he was young and cute.

2001: The collapse of the Dot com bubble, along with 9/11 and corporate scandal, led to economic contraction.
Top-grossing movie: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone

The first movie about the boy magician, Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, and the fight against Voldemort and the forces of evil. The books became an international obsession among children and adults alike, and the movies stuck close to the original stories and rode the wave to box office success.

There are some notably similar themes among these hits, based on our Movie Genome.

Young heroes * In danger * Feel good * Goofy heroes * Good vs. evil * Sibling relations * Friendship * Lighthearted * Supernatural ability * Mother and daughter
- Inspired? You can search any or several of these on Jinni.

What’s your favorite in this list? And what types of movies do you predict people will choose in the current financial crisis?

Popularity: 13% [?]